GEO-POWER-EU examines how major external actors influence countries in the Western Balkans and the Eastern Partnership. To do this, the project develops three complementary indices, each answering a different question:
Together, the indices provide a clear picture of influence, risk, and autonomy.
The Interdependence Index shows how closely countries are linked to five major external actors: the EU, the United States, China, Russia and Turkey.
Scored from 0 to 100, the index captures how broad and dense these links are in four dimensions:
An Aggregated Index is a result of the indices for four dimensions which have been equally weighted.
The index is built using assessments from panels of experts, who evaluated these links using a structured rating system. The questionnaire used a 1-5 Likert scale explaining the level of interdependence (1. Insignificant, 2. Low, 3. Moderate, 4. Important, 5. Strategic). The same five-step scale applies to the index values: 0-20, 21-40, 41-60, 61-80 and 81-100.
In short, this index indicates who is linked to whom and the degree of their connection.
How vulnerable are countries to external pressure?
The Exposure Risk Index measures internal weaknesses that can make countries more vulnerable to harmful or manipulative external influence.
Scored from 0 to 100, where the greater the score, the higher the risk exposure is, it assesses vulnerabilities across four dimensions:
The index is built using assessments from panels of experts, who evaluated these vulnerabilities using a standardised assessment method. The questionnaire used a 1-5 Likert scale explaining the level of resilience (1. Very High, 2. High, 3. Moderate, 4. Low, 5. Very Low). Later, the scale has been reversed to calculate risk exposure with the following five-step scale applied to the exposure risk index values: 0-20 (Very Low), 21-40 (Low), 41-60 (Moderate), 61-80 (High) and 81-100 (Very High).
In brief, this index assesses country’s vulnerability in response to external influences.
Who really makes the decisions?
The Strategic Autonomy Index measures how much influence external actors have over a country’s domestic decision-makinh. A higher score (0-100) means that national institutions are better insulated from outside pressure. A lower score indicates that foreign actors can have a significant influence on policy choices.
The index looks at four dimensions:
Experts assessed the impact of external actors on policy-making using a detailed rating scale.
In short, this index measures the degree of autonomy countries have in making their own decisions.
Coming soon
How the indices work together
Together, they provide a comprehensive understanding of geopolitical influence in the Western Balkans and the Eastern Neighbourhood.
The Interdependence Index shows how closely countries are linked to five major external actors: the EU, the United States, China, Russia and Turkey.
Scored from 0 to 100, the index captures how broad and dense these links are in four dimensions:
An Aggregated Index is a result of the indices for four dimensions which have been equally weighted.
The index is built using assessments from panels of experts, who evaluated these links using a structured rating system. The questionnaire used a 1-5 Likert scale explaining the level of interdependence (1. Insignificant, 2. Low, 3. Moderate, 4. Important, 5. Strategic). The same five-step scale applies to the index values: 0-20, 21-40, 41-60, 61-80 and 81-100.
In short, this index indicates who is linked to whom and the degree of their connection.
The Exposure Risk Index measures internal weaknesses that can make countries more vulnerable to harmful or manipulative external influence.
Scored from 0 to 100, where the greater the score, the higher the risk exposure is, it assesses vulnerabilities across four dimensions:
The index is built using assessments from panels of experts, who evaluated these vulnerabilities using a standardised assessment method. The questionnaire used a 1-5 Likert scale explaining the level of resilience (1. Very High, 2. High, 3. Moderate, 4. Low, 5. Very Low). Later, the scale has been reversed to calculate risk exposure with the following five-step scale applied to the exposure risk index values: 0-20 (Very Low), 21-40 (Low), 41-60 (Moderate), 61-80 (High) and 81-100 (Very High).
In brief, this index assesses country’s vulnerability in response to external influences.
The Strategic Autonomy Index measures how much influence external actors have over a country’s domestic decision-makinh. A higher score (0-100) means that national institutions are better insulated from outside pressure. A lower score indicates that foreign actors can have a significant influence on policy choices.
The index looks at four dimensions:
Experts assessed the impact of external actors on policy-making using a detailed rating scale.
In short, this index measures the degree of autonomy countries have in making their own decisions.
Coming soon