GEO-POWER-EU Indices: How External Influence Works




GEO-POWER-EU examines how major external actors influence countries in the Western Balkans and the Eastern Partnership. To do this, the project develops three complementary indices, each answering a different question:

  • How closely linked are these countries to major external actors?
  • How vulnerable are they to external pressure?
  • How much control do they retain over their own decisions?

Together, the indices provide a clear picture of influence, risk, and autonomy.


The Interdependence Index

The Interdependence Index shows how closely countries are linked to five major external actors: the EU, the United States, China, Russia and Turkey.

Scored from 0 to 100, the index captures how broad and dense these links are in four dimensions:

  • Political - formal agreements, diplomatic ties, leadership meetings, party-to-party relations, and participation in international initiatives
  • Security - military cooperation, joint exercises, security agreements, and law-enforcement cooperation
  • Economic - trade, investments, financial assistance, debt, and business links
  • Societal - media presence, cultural exchange, education, migration, and civil society links

An Aggregated Index is a result of the indices for four dimensions which have been equally weighted.

The index is built using assessments from panels of experts, who evaluated these links using a structured rating system. The questionnaire used a 1-5 Likert scale explaining the level of interdependence (1. Insignificant, 2. Low, 3. Moderate, 4. Important, 5. Strategic). The same five-step scale applies to the index values: 0-20, 21-40, 41-60, 61-80 and 81-100.

In short, this index indicates who is linked to whom and the degree of their connection.

Explore the data at this link

The Exposure Risk Index

How vulnerable are countries to external pressure?

The Exposure Risk Index measures internal weaknesses that can make countries more vulnerable to harmful or manipulative external influence.

Also scored from 0 to 100, it assesses resilience across the same four dimensions:

  • Political - legitimacy of statehood, quality of democracy, elections, rule of law, government accountability, and judicial independence
  • Security - resilience against organised crime, extremism, and cyberattacks, and the professionalism and accountability of security institutions
  • Economic - exposure to opaque or illicit financial flows and corruption, dependence on single energy suppliers, and foreign control of critical infrastructure
  • Societal - media freedom, resilience against disinformation, civic engagement, and the strength of civil society

Expert panels evaluated these vulnerabilities using a standardised assessment method.

In brief, this index assesses a country’s resilience or vulnerability in response to external influences.

Coming soon

The Strategic Autonomy Index

Who really makes the decisions?

The Strategic Autonomy Index measures how much influence external actors have over a country’s domestic decision-makinh. A higher score (0-100) means that national institutions are better insulated from outside pressure. A lower score indicates that foreign actors can have a significant influence on policy choices.

The index looks at four dimensions:

  • Political - influence over laws, political processes, and government decisions
  • Security - external leverage over defence and security policies
  • Economic - pressure through trade, finance, energy, or critical infrastructure
  • Societal - influence over public opinion, media narratives, and social dynamics

Experts assessed the impact of external actors on policy-making using a detailed rating scale.

In short, this index measures the degree of autonomy countries have in making their own decisions.

Coming soon

How the indices work together

  • Interdependence shows the links
  • Exposure Risk shows the vulnerabilities and weak points
  • Strategic Autonomy shows the outcome: how independent decision-making really is

Together, they provide a comprehensive understanding of geopolitical influence in the Western Balkans and the Eastern Neighbourhood.


The Interdependence Index shows how closely countries are linked to five major external actors: the EU, the United States, China, Russia and Turkey.

Scored from 0 to 100, the index captures how broad and dense these links are in four dimensions:

  • Political - formal agreements, diplomatic ties, leadership meetings, party-to-party relations, and participation in international initiatives
  • Security - military cooperation, joint exercises, security agreements, and law-enforcement cooperation
  • Economic - trade, investments, financial assistance, debt, and business links
  • Societal - media presence, cultural exchange, education, migration, and civil society links

An Aggregated Index is a result of the indices for four dimensions which have been equally weighted.

The index is built using assessments from panels of experts, who evaluated these links using a structured rating system. The questionnaire used a 1-5 Likert scale explaining the level of interdependence (1. Insignificant, 2. Low, 3. Moderate, 4. Important, 5. Strategic). The same five-step scale applies to the index values: 0-20, 21-40, 41-60, 61-80 and 81-100.

In short, this index indicates who is linked to whom and the degree of their connection.

How vulnerable are countries to external pressure?

The Exposure Risk Index measures internal weaknesses that can make countries more vulnerable to harmful or manipulative external influence.

Also scored from 0 to 100, it assesses resilience across the same four dimensions:

  • Political - legitimacy of statehood, quality of democracy, elections, rule of law, government accountability, and judicial independence
  • Security - resilience against organised crime, extremism, and cyberattacks, and the professionalism and accountability of security institutions
  • Economic - exposure to opaque or illicit financial flows and corruption, dependence on single energy suppliers, and foreign control of critical infrastructure
  • Societal - media freedom, resilience against disinformation, civic engagement, and the strength of civil society

Expert panels evaluated these vulnerabilities using a standardised assessment method.

In brief, this index assesses a country’s resilience or vulnerability in response to external influences.

Coming soon

Who really makes the decisions?

The Strategic Autonomy Index measures how much influence external actors have over a country’s domestic decision-makinh. A higher score (0-100) means that national institutions are better insulated from outside pressure. A lower score indicates that foreign actors can have a significant influence on policy choices.

The index looks at four dimensions:

  • Political - influence over laws, political processes, and government decisions
  • Security - external leverage over defence and security policies
  • Economic - pressure through trade, finance, energy, or critical infrastructure
  • Societal - influence over public opinion, media narratives, and social dynamics

Experts assessed the impact of external actors on policy-making using a detailed rating scale.

In short, this index measures the degree of autonomy countries have in making their own decisions.

Coming soon